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330
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11/21/09
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
May 2, 2009 1:33 AM
in response to: venevidivici
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Today is May 1, or what's left of it. For those of you who like to realize gains I have a question. Wasn't yesterday an ugly day for you. That is April 30, the day I always file my tax return. There seem to have been a small gain to report. I try not to realize a gain but there always stuff like the Aliant conversion to an income trust which results from an involuntary gain. Those kind of messes up the hoped for refund.
In prior years, there were significant taxes to pay and I am a fan of Buy and Hold. For those who want to realize gain, are they always inside an RRSP or do you buy RRSP's to offset the taxes?
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522
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11/21/09
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Oct 23, 2009 11:20 AM
in response to: fincoach
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It's interesting to re-read some of the most bearish comments during one of the best buying opportunities. I've been hearing people been calling this rally unsustainable or that it's a deadcat bounce since March. Even iShares Dow Jones Financial has more than doubled since march.
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16
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Oct 24, 2009 12:44 PM
in response to: jungleguy
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Jungleguy, you are right, last 9 month was one of the best life time opportunity to buy. I learned not to listen to anyone when you want to invest, just use your personal voice and your personal judgement.
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330
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11/21/09
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Oct 25, 2009 12:58 PM
in response to: rassan
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I started this thread on March 14. It was fun to read some of the comments.
I couldn't read all that were posted.
Historically, September is a down month but I made money. So far October
is the down month. Things can turn quickly. Lots of earnings reports are a
coming in better than expected. Results are more from expense reduction
rather than sales growth. At least there's earnings which are necessary to
support the dividends.
Lately I've been buying more financials, some RBS and some GWO.
GWO at $ 24.80 yields almost 5%. I'm looking for at least a 12% return on
capital, an additional 7% is $1.75. I feel certain that GWO will settle in at a
price greater than $26.50 in the next 12 months. Realistically will be more
likely in the $ 28 to $ 29 range.
Are you on the sidelines with your cash in Money Market Funds? Some people
I've talked to want the certainty of preferred shares. If you take the plunge
where would your funds go?
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16
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Oct 25, 2009 1:12 PM
in response to: fincoach
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Fully invested, built excelent dividend profolio back in Februay 2009, by June was fully invested. Bought BMO 36$, BNS 32$, BEI.UN 24$, REI.UN 12$, FCR 14$, ENB 34$, TRP 29$, BCE 22$, FTS 21$,etc..
My current average dividend yield is 7%, and I have nice capital gain so far around 35%. Recentely I added Rogers at 28$ and Telus at 32.5$. Looking for entry point on Encana before the split (If I can).
Nice run so far, hope this cycle continues for 2010 and 2011.
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2,273
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11/21/09
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 1, 2009 9:43 PM
in response to: rassan
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Solid dividend paying stocks like an FTS or something looks good but I am still as bearish as ever and we will see the March lows again and break through them before this is over. We are in the process of sucking up the sideline money which could go on even until the middle of next year but we will be going back down again. I believe gold will do well and gold stocks will do well even though they will correct with the market.
The key here is capital preservation first and grabbing the opportunities you can but be willing to sell. You have to remember talking about the TSX that we are at about the same level as the top in 2000 and well off the all time high.
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2,273
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 2, 2009 6:11 PM
in response to: dogcom2
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dogcom2,
Remember, earning drives the market up or down, based on the economic outlooks the earning is heading up for the last 2 quarters. I don't think we will see the March low again, unless the earning changes direction to the negative side.
Gold is good if the inflation starts to show up. However, in case of inflation, stocks in general should be a good investments like REIT, Energy and services, inflation should be priced in the stock prices.
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261
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 2, 2009 7:18 PM
in response to: rassan
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Remember, earning drives the market up or down, based on the economic outlooks the earning is heading up for the last 2 quarters. I don't think we will see the March low again, unless the earning changes direction to the negative side.
Don't you find it hard to believe that the giant corporations reporting multi-billion $$ losses and write offs less than 6 months ago are now reporting thumping profits?
I think earnings are profit numbers are being manipulated.
Less than 6 months ago, they jointly needed close to $1B in TARP funding to stay afloat (not the mention the losses and write offs) and now they have not only been able to return the TARP money but are back in the "black" ink.
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255
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 2, 2009 11:42 PM
in response to: haroldcrump
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Perhaps it's all a sham, but it doesn't really matter. The market is built on speculation and reported numbers. Most people are too ignorant to know the difference and most that do wouldn't benefit from playing the informant. Plus it's a lot of thankless work educating millions of idiots, lol.
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522
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11/21/09
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 4, 2009 3:20 AM
in response to: dogcom2
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we will see the March lows again and break through them before this is over. We are in the process of sucking up the sideline money which could go on even until the middle of next year but we will be going back down again.
Hmm... tell that to Warren Buffett who just offered a bargain price for BNI. Apparently he's an idiot who's in need of a generous education.
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 4, 2009 5:13 PM
in response to: jungleguy
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Some people have stopped on the crisis that started in 2007, and they are still in a waitting mode, they don't want to look forward. Remeber that the stock market is always ahead and it never looked backward (check the history).
I am not saying close your eyes and through your money, however as investor look at the company you want to invest in, check their business model, do your home work and analyze their financial statements, etc..
Enbridge reports the earning today check it out, do you see any write offs?
Saputo also reports, their earning increased 37%.
Do you want the real investors to ignore these news and just wait and think about TARP.
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2,273
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 5, 2009 12:00 PM
in response to: jungleguy
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I think Warren Buffett is doing what I said and that is finding an opportunity by buying a company with a moat around it as railways are not easy to build and get approval. Also it is cheaper to move rail cars then to truck everything and if the US dollar keeps falling he can move goods cheaper to China. And because of the size of the purchase and how he sees the long term future ahead he has to act in a different way then a smaller investor would. If you look at the last secular bear market in the 70's value investors did very well as the opportunities came forward.
Looking forward we still don't know if we are dealing with inflation or deflation and earnings have come through because of cost cutting while everyone is put out of work. Consumers find it harder to borrow and don't have the money to be buying things as in the past and if the economy does get going interest rates will need to go up as prices rise shutting down consumers. This also doesn't account for the changing demographics picture which is looking like Japan in the early 90's and the huge increase in taxes needed to pay for the debt and social security ahead.
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522
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11/21/09
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 5, 2009 12:21 PM
in response to: dogcom2
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yeahbut railways are a proxy to the North American economy. If US is capable of shipping more goods to China as you said, then your theory of the stock market breaking below March low is in serious jeopardy. Buffett has many opportunities to takeover BNI in the past, but he elected to make a move now, which illustrates his confidence in both the strength and value of the stock market.
You're putting way too much faith on your parallels with stock market crashes in previous era and countries, but there are as many differences as there are commonalities. All just shooting in the dark if you ask me.
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Posts:
2,273
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11/21/09
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Re: Are WE At Bottom Yet?
Posted:
Nov 5, 2009 11:38 PM
in response to: jungleguy
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Take away all the references to the past and you can still see we are in a great deal of change which is reflected through the volatility of the markets. We have alot of unanswered questions which is being expressed through gold, currencies, debt, consumers, commercial real estate, deflation, inflation, derivatives, demographics and so on, so if you shoot in the dark at all that is out there today it isn't hard to hit something.
All this doesn't mean we can't continue to have a bull market cycle with all this paper being thrown around but it will have nothing to do with fundamentals. If the US dollar gets strong enough it will derail the new flight to risk and sink everything again, if not there is enough problems out there to sink things. Buffett however is thinking that even if that happens he can wait it out as his asset has value and like I said where are you going to find the land and the approvals to run a railroad against his.
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